Shield AI Builds Toward Profitability on Contracts, Hivemind Expansion, and Market Demand

Weekly Edition & Stock Spotlight

May 11, 2026

PM Insights, now part of MSCI, provides independent, market-driven data for Private Growth and Pre-IPO companies, delivering unparalleled transparency and helping asset managers, banks, consultants, investors, and regulators understand trading conditions and risk in this dynamic market.

This report examines Shield AI’s position within the rapidly evolving defense technology landscape, with a focus on its Hivemind autonomy platform and its role in enabling AI-powered, GPS-denied operations. The company has demonstrated strong momentum following its March 2026 announcement of a planned $2 billion capital raise at a $12.7 billion valuation, alongside the acquisition of simulation firm Aechelon.

The proposed transaction underscores growing confidence in Shield AI’s strategy to expand into integrated autonomy and simulation capabilities, reinforcing its role in the shift toward AI-native, software-defined defense systems.

‍

Key Takeaways‍

Valuation Trend: Shield AI has announced plans to raise capital at a $12.7 billion valuation (~2.4x its $5.3 billion Series F1 valuation in February 2025)‍
90-Day Stock Performance: Shield AI ranked 4th among the ten most active private-market companies, all of which delivered positive returns over the past 90 days‍
Revenue Expansion: ‍Shield AI's revenue grew 12.36% ‍year-over-year to $300 million in 2025‍
Secondary Market Performance: The company recorded mixed returns of +72.68%, +17.14%, and -1.23% over the past 180, 90, and 30 days, respectively
‍Quarterly Bid-Ask Volume: Bid and ask volume peaked at $1.26 billion in 2026 Q1

ROI Private & Public

|| ROI from Dec 31, 2025 until May 11, 2026.

‍

_{The PM50 Growth tracks the performance of the 50 most active private names observed in the secondary market. It is an equal-weighted index, rebalanced on a monthly basis.}

_{This rebalancing of constituents over time gives way for more active names to participate in what we observe as "market performance," and in a more appropriate manner than static selections and weightings criteria.}

‍

Most Active Names Performance Across All Sectors

Data as of May 11, 2026.

90D Return △ - Trend of return on composite price

90D % △ - Change in composite price in terms of percentage

‍

‍

_{Price (USD) estimated based on secondary market activity observed by MSCI Private Company Insights. Valuation is estimated based on said price and share count from state filings and/or news in the public domain. Note that share count in calculations may change as new filing documents are obtained.}

Stock Spotlight - Shield AI

Visit official website

Sectors

AI Aerospace Defence Automation

Headquarters

San Diego, California, USA

CEO

Gary Steele

‍

”Autonomy for the world.”

Founded in 2015, Shield AI is a defense technology company specializing in AI-powered autonomy for unmanned aircraft and drone systems, with a mission to protect service members and civilians through intelligent autonomous technologies. Its flagship Hivemind autonomy stack powers platforms including the V-BAT VTOL aircraft, Nova-class quadcopters, and newer systems such as the X-BAT, enabling autonomous surveillance, reconnaissance, and mission operations in contested, GPS- and communications-denied environments for the United States and allied militaries.

In a defense autonomy market benefiting from increased U.S. and allied spending on low-cost autonomous systems, Shield AI has emerged as a leading military-focused drone and autonomy provider with expanding deployment across multiple operational theaters.

‍

Business Model

Shield AI front loads its own R&D to develop complete, off the shelf autonomous systems and then sells those systems under fixed price contracts to government customers, rather than relying on traditional cost plus defense contracting that begins development only after an RFP. The company generates revenue by selling V-BAT aircraft, which are priced around $1M per unit depending on configuration and volume, operating contractor owned and contractor operated ISR services under multi year agreements such as a 198M contract with the U.S. Coast Guard, and fulfilling orders that can range from as few as 4 to as many as 300 aircraft. In parallel, Shield AI licenses its Hivemind autonomy software to major defense primes including Airbus, Kratos, and L3Harris via Hivemind Enterprise.

‍

Scale and Growth

Revenue Level: $300M revenue by March 2025, up from $267M in 2024.
Product Mix: Hivemind software ~30% of revenue in the 12 months ending in March 2025, targeting ~50% software mix by 2028.
Customer Base: Working with 8 of top 25 U.S. defense primes; major 198M Coast Guard and allied naval contracts.
Hardware Volume: Producing hundreds of V-BATs each year at a unified “Batcave” facility in Texas.
Funding & Valuation: Raising $1.5B Series G at $12.7B valuation plus $750M in additional capital in March 2026.

‍‍

<row>

<col>

Targeted Impact

Shield AI develops smart autonomous systems using reliable AI to enhance global security and safeguard service members.

</col>

<col>

</col>

<col>

What Comes Next?

Shield AI is scaling Hivemind Enterprise to OEMs and governments, enabling millions of autonomous systems over next decade.

</col>

</row>

<row>

<col>

</col>

<col>

Who will benefit?

Defense agencies, military organizations, and government security forces benefit from Shield AI’s autonomous drone and AI solutions.

</col>

<col>

</col>

</row>

‍

Shield AI's Timeline

‍

‍

Shield AI's Competitive Landscape by Similarity and Market Cap

The chart below displays Shield AI's peer companies, with bubble size reflecting similarity to Shield AI and each bubble labeled with its valuation based on MSCI Private Company Insights data as of May 11, 2026.

‍

‍

^{Classifications powered by}^{Syntax Data}

‍

Prominent News

Shield AI selected by U.S. Navy to compete for $800M in ISR services with V-BAT, April 20, 2026, - Shield AI was selected by the U.S. Navy to compete for up to $800 million in ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) service contracts, where it will provide drone-based surveillance using its V-BAT aircraft as part of a broader effort to modernize naval capabilities. Click here to read more.

Shield AI to acquire software simulation company Aechelon and raise $2B at $12.7B valuation, March 26, 2026 - Shield AI plans to acquire Aechelon Technology, a defense software company focused on simulation and synthetic reality technologies for military training and autonomous systems, alongside its announced $1.5 billion Series G financing. Click here to read more

Shield AI’s V-BAT proves cold weather capabilities in NATO’s arena HEIMDALL exercise, March 3, 2026 - Shield AI demonstrated its V-BAT drone’s ability to operate in extreme Arctic conditions during a NATO exercise, successfully conducting ship- and land-based surveillance missions without requiring modifications. Click here to read more.

‍

Revenue

The graph below displays the revenue and revenue growth of Shield AI from 2020 to 2025.

Shield AI's revenue grew 12.36% year-over-year to $300 million in 2025

‍

‍

Return on Investment (ROI)

The graph below displays Shield AI's ROI over the past 90, 60, and 30 days, computed as of May 11, 2026.

180D: ↑ +72.68% since November 13, 2025‍
90D: ↑ +17.14% since February 11, 2026‍
30D: ↓ -1.23% since April 12, 2026

‍

‍

Funding Round in USD

Primary Funding Round: Shield AI raised $240 million in Series F1 on February 07, 2025, at a $5.3B valuation
Investors: Series F1 saw participation from A16Z, Hanwha Asset Management, L3Harris, Us Innovative Technology, and Washington Harbour ‍‍
Secondary Market Valuation: $10.38 billion on May 11, 2026, according to MSCI Private Company Insights

Note: As of May 10, 2026, Shield AI’s announced Series G financing had not yet been reflected in official regulatory filings.

‍

<row>

<card>

Primary Round Valuation

2025-02-07
$5.3B

</card>

<card>

Secondary Market Valuation

2026-05-11
$10.38B

</card>

<card>

Valuation Change

primary → secondary
+95.85%

</card>

</row>

‍

‍

Quarterly Bid-to-Ask Volume Ratio

MSCI Private Company Insights presents the quarterly bid-to-ask volume ratio of Shield AI from 2024 Q1 to 2026 QTD. The stacked bar chart below shows total quarterly bid and ask volumes alongside their relative ratios, illustrating market activity.

Highest volume: $1.26 billion in 2026 Q1
Lowest volume: $3 million in 2024 Q1
2026 QTD volume: $602 million

‍

‍

Volatility of Composite Price

The volatility of the composite price is calculated based on price movements within a 90-day rolling window ending on each respective date. The graph below illustrates the trend in volatility of composite price for Shield AI for a one year period from May 12, 2025 until May 11, 2026.

Volatility began at 14.44% and peaked at 15.14% in early July 2025
It then gradually declined, with minor fluctuations, through the end of January 2026
A modest increase followed, taking volatility to 13.09% by early April
Afterward, it resumed a downward trend, reaching a low of 7.29% for the period
Volatility ended at 7.42% on May 11, 2026

‍

Shield AI's Private Comparables

MSCI Private Company Insights highlights five private companies, all active as of May 11, 2026, that are close competitors of Shield AI. These companies either develop AI-driven autonomous defense systems or provide advanced platforms and technologies that enable the deployment, coordination, and scaling of unmanned operations across air, maritime, and multi-domain environments.

Change in Valuation

MSCI Private Company Insights uses composite prices based on institutional-sized broker contributions within the last 90 days to compute implied valuations. The current implied valuations reported below were computed as of May 22, 2026, and are compared to each company's latest funding round valuation and valuation on December 31, 2025. Harmattan AI is missing from the chart below because their valuation was unavailable.

Shield AI's current implied valuation is $10.38B, a 95.85% increase from its latest valuation of $5.3B. Shield AI's implied valuation was $6.3B on December 31, 2025
Anduril's current implied valuation is $112.29B, a 87.16% increase from its latest valuation of $60.0B. Anduril's implied valuation was $71.5B on December 31, 2025
Saronic's current implied valuation is $9.48B, a 2.54% increase from its latest valuation of $9.25B. Saronic's implied valuation was $3.65B on December 31, 2025
CHAOS's current implied valuation is $4.23B, a 6.1% decrease from its latest valuation of $4.5B. CHAOS's implied valuation was $4.43B on December 31, 2025

‍

‍

90D Bid and Ask Volume Ratio

The stacked bar chart below illustrates the bid and ask volume ratios for the period from February 11, 2026, to May 11, 2026, showing only companies with at least 3 contributions.

Highest volume: Anduril, $2.82 billion‍
Lowest volume: Harmattan AI, $20 million
Shield AI's 90-day volume was $1.47 bllion

‍

‍

Change in Composite Price

The bar chart below illustrates the 90-day change in composite prices for the period from February 11, 2026, to May 11, 2026. Harmattan AI is excluded from the chart because its composite price was unavailable on February 11, 2026.

Strongest gain: Saronic's composite price was up +99.20%
No gain: CHAOS’ composite price remained flat at 0%
Shield AI's composite price rose by +17.14%, reflecting a moderate gain

‍

‍

YTD Average Volatility of Composite Price

The volatility of the composite price is calculated based on price movements within a 90-day rolling window ending on that date. The bar chart below displays the mean volatility from January 1, 2026 until May 11, 2026.