Polymarket Secondary Valuation Reaches $11.6B Post-Relaunch

Weekly Edition & Stock Spotlight

January 21, 2026

PM Insights provides independent, market-driven data for Private Growth and Pre-IPO companies, providing unparalleled transparency and helping asset managers, banks, consultants, investors, and regulators understand trading conditions and risk in this dynamic market.

This report examines Polymarket’s position within the global prediction-market ecosystem as it evolves from an election-driven platform into a multi-vertical forecasting marketplace. Rapid volume growth and expanding participation across politics, sports, economics, and real-world assets have strengthened its role as a source of real-time market sentiment.

Polymarket’s increasing relevance as data infrastructure is reflected in strategic partnerships with institutional and media players, including Dow Jones and Intercontinental Exchange, enabling distribution of prediction-market signals alongside traditional financial indicators. Vertical expansion through data partnerships, such as real-estate markets powered by Parcl, further broadens its utility beyond single-event trading.

At the same time, Polymarket continues to navigate a fragmented global regulatory landscape. While the platform has faced access restrictions in certain international jurisdictions, including Portugal and Hungary, its regulated U.S. relaunch enabled by the QCEX acquisition underscores a strategic shift toward compliance-driven market access in core financial regions.

Together, these dynamics position Polymarket as emerging prediction-market infrastructure, with improving liquidity, growing institutional relevance, and expanding long-term opportunities across real-money forecasting and data distribution, despite ongoing jurisdiction-specific regulatory constraints.

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Key Takeaways‍

90-Day Stock Performance: Polymarket ranked among the ten most active private-market companies and delivered positive returns over the past 90 days
ROI Momentum: Polymarket delivered impressive gains of 646.59%, 13.36%, and 3.17% over the past 180 days, 90 days, and 30 days respectively‍
Valuation Growth: Polymarket's implied valuation reached ‍$11.60 billion on January 19, 2026, up 28.89% from its $9 billion Series D round in October 06, 2025‍
Peak Bid-Ask Volume: Bid-ask volume peaked at $425M in November 2025‍

ROI Private & Public

|| ROI from December 31, 2024 until January 19, 2026.

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_{The PM50 Growth tracks the performance of the 50 most active private names observed in the secondary market. It is an equal-weighted index, rebalanced on a monthly basis.}

_{This rebalancing of constituents over time gives way for more active names to participate in what we observe as "market performance," and in a more appropriate manner than static selections and weightings criteria.}

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Most Active Names Performance Across All Sectors

Data as of January 19, 2026.

90D Return △ - Trend of return on composite price

90D % △ - Change in composite price in terms of percentage

Secondary Mkt Val - Secondary market valuation based on composite price

90D Secondary Mkt Val △ - Change in secondary market valuation

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_{Price (USD) estimated based on secondary market activity observed by PM Insights. Valuation is estimated based on said price and share count from state filings and/or news in the public domain. Note that share count in calculations may change as new filing documents are obtained.}

Stock Spotlight - Polymarket

Sectors

Marketplace Blockchain DeFi Analytics

Headquarters

New York, New York, USA

CEO

Shayne Coplan

“The World's Largest Prediction Market”

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market that allows people to trade on the outcomes of real‑world events, providing real‑time probabilities for topics ranging from politics and macroeconomics to sports and entertainment. Built on the Polygon blockchain and settled in USDC, the platform packages complex on‑chain infrastructure behind a consumer‑grade interface, including quick, wallet‑less onboarding via fiat on‑ramps and social logins. As prediction markets gain prominence as an alternative information source for investors, media and institutions, Polymarket is positioning itself as core infrastructure in this space, with its data increasingly treated as a live sentiment signal on how informed participants believe key events are likely to unfold.

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Business Model

Polymarket operates a global marketplace where users buy and sell binary outcome shares on future events, with prices quoted between 0 and 1 USDC that both reflect the implied probability of an outcome and determine the payout, since winning shares resolve to 1 USDC and losing shares to 0. The platform does not act as the house or take directional risk. Every trade is matched between users, and liquidity is entirely user-provided. Prices emerge from supply and demand rather than being set by the company. Traders can enter and exit positions before resolution to lock in profits or cut losses. Polymarket does not charge trading, deposit or withdrawal fees on its global venue and instead prioritizes liquidity, user growth and the value of its real‑time probability data, which is increasingly consumed by third parties.

Polymarket plans to monetize through its regulated U.S. exchange operated via QCEX. It has signaled a near-zero fee schedule measured in basis points per trade. The company will also monetize through institutional distribution of its prediction data in partnership with established market infrastructure providers.

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Scale and Growth

Scale & Volume: Trading volume on the Polymarket platform grew from $73M (2023) to ~$9B (2024)
Current Run-Rate: ~$3.02B in monthly volume (Oct 2025)
Market Share: 70%+ of decentralized prediction market activity
Funding & Valuation: $2B strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (Oct 2025), parent company of NYSE valuing Polymarket at $9B post-money
Growth Drivers: Simplified onboarding/UX that hides blockchain complexity; viral distribution of prices on social media; leveraging international liquidity alongside a planned regulated re-entry

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Competitive Edge

The prediction-market landscape splits between focused point solutions and broad, multi-product platforms:

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Point Solution Specialists: Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold are specialized prediction market exchanges.
All-in-One Platforms: DraftKings, FanDuel, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and CME Group embed prediction-style products within broader ecosystems
Hybrid Operator: Sporttrade is an exchange-style sports operator with prediction market UX.
Investor Implications: Point solution players offer focus, while all-in-one platforms offer cross-sell opportunities and regulatory scale .

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Targeted Impact

Polymarket turns crowd forecasts into real-time market probabilities, offering data-driven signals beyond narrative-based media.

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What Comes Next?

Polymarket is relaunching a fully regulated U.S. exchange, expanding into sports, real estate and data products for institutions.

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Who will benefit?

Polymarket benefits institutional clients, retail traders, liquidity providers, and data analysts seeking real-time, market-driven probabilities on global events.

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Polymarket's Timeline

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Bull and Bear Case

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Prominent News

Crypto betting site Polymarket under fire for taking direct wagers on wars, January 14, 2026 - Polymarket is facing backlash from U.S. lawmakers after listing crypto-based betting contracts tied to potential wars and military actions, including scenarios involving Taiwan, Ukraine, and possible U.S. strikes abroad. Click here to read more

Polymarket, Dow Jones Partner to Display Prediction-Markets Data in Dow Jones Content, January 07, 2026 - Polymarket has partnered with Dow Jones to display real-time prediction-market odds across its digital publications, including The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, and Barron’s. Click here to read more.

Polymarket Returns to U.S. Users After a Nearly 3-Year Hiatus, January 04, 2025 - Polymarket has made a comeback for U.S. users after nearly three years away, relaunching at the end of 2025 under a CFTC-compliant structure that allows Americans to once again place real-money bets on future events. Click here to read more.‍

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Return on Investment (ROI)

The graph below displays Polymarket's ROI over the past 90, 60, and 30 days, computed as of January 19, 2026.

180D: ↑ +646.59% since July 24, 2025
90D: ↑ +13.36% since October 22, 2025‍
30D: ↑ +3.17% since December 21, 2025

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Funding Round in USD

Primary Funding Round: Polymarket raised Series D on October 06, 2025, at a $9 billion valuation
Investors: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), made a strategic investment of up to $2 billion, valuing Polymarket at approximately $9 billion
Secondary Market Valuation: $11.60 billion on January 19, 2026, according to PM Insights

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Primary Round Valuation

2025-10-06
$9B

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Secondary Market Valuation

2026-01-19
$11.60B

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Valuation Change

primary → secondary
+28.89%

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Monthly Bid-to-Ask Volume Ratio

PM Insights presents the monthly bid-to-ask volume ratio of Polymarket from July 1, 2025 to January 19, 2026. The stacked bar chart below shows total monthly bid and ask volumes alongside their relative ratios, illustrating market activity.

Highest volume: $425 million in November 2025
Lowest volume: $2 million in‍ July 2025‍
Largest bid-side activity: 100% of $2 million in July 2025 and 100% of $25 million in August 2025
Largest ask-side activity: 97% of $349.8 million in December 2025

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Polymarket's Private Comparables

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PM Insights highlights a comparison between Polymarket and its close competitor Kalshi, real‑money prediction market firms whose securities are actively traded, with elevated transaction volumes in the secondary market on broker platforms.

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Change in Valuation

PM Insights uses composite prices based on institutional-sized broker contributions within the last 90 days to compute implied valuations. The current implied valuations reported below were computed as of January 19, 2026, and are compared to each company's latest funding round valuation and valuation on December 31, 2024:

Polymarket's current implied valuation is $11.6B, a 28.91% increase from its latest valuation of $9.0B. Polymarket's implied valuation was $11.5B on December 31, 2025.
‍Kalshi's current implied valuation is $11.11B, a 1.01% increase from its latest valuation of $11.0B. Kalshi's implied valuation was $11.7B on December 31, 2025.

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90D Bid and Ask Volume Ratio

The stacked bar chart below illustrates the bid and ask volume ratios for the period from October 22, 2025, to January 19, 2026, showing only companies with at least 3 contributions.

Highest volume & Largest ask-side activity : Polymarket, $1.11 billion with 90% on ask-side ‍
Lowest volume: Kalshi, $211.90 million

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Change in Composite Price

The bar chart below illustrates the 90-day change in composite prices for the period from October 22, 2025, to January 19, 2026.

Strongest gain: Kalshi's composite price was up +62.11%% from $199.87 to $324.01
Lowest gain: Polymarket's composite price was up +13.36% from $117.88 to $133.62

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YTD Average Volatility of Composite Price

The volatility of the composite price is calculated based on price movements within a 90-day rolling window ending on that date. The bar chart below displays the mean volatility from January 1, 2026 until January 19, 2026.

Highest Volatility: 29.02%, Kalshi
‍Lowest Volatility: , 16.13%, Polymarket

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